Friday, February 10, 2012

Is Israel Prepared For A Confrontation With Iran?

Not sure if Israel will attack targets in the Spring. Unfortunately, the longer they wait, the more Iran is able to harden it's nuclear facilities. Most of Iran's research, development and production is being relocated and developed below ground in mountainous areas around Qom and other locations. Some of these facilities have been compared to trying to destroy our complex at Cheyenne Mountain with conventional weapons. From many reports, Israel has the ability to cripple the development by destroying the heavy water and research facilities not yet hardened, but may not be able to penetrate those located inside mountains. Remember, even a crippled horse may eventually make it to the finish line.
The biggest conventional bomb in the U.S. arsenal is the 15 ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator. This bomb was designed to blast through 60 feet of concrete or penetrate 200 feet below ground before detention. Israel may have something similar, but do they have the delivery system? A bomb this size would need to be delivered by a heavy bomber such as the B-52 or the B-2. It is possible to deliver a weapon such as this with a cargo plane, but it would not be feasible since they would lack the speed and the defensive capabilities.
Israel could rely on nuclear weapons to destroy the hardened targets, but this creates several problems in itself. The main one is these bombs may still not be powerful enough. Remember, Israel has developed it's Nuclear arsenal as both a deterrent and a retaliation force, not necessarily for offensive purposes. Also, the use of nuclear weapons would impact the surrounding populations of other countries, not just the Iranians. The Geo-political fallout could be immense and serve to weaken Israel as well. A major caveat that many are not aware of is Russia and China have a great investment in Iran and they do not want to see their investments destroyed. Russia is making billions from it's alliance with Iran. China is gaining an important partner in military research. Both Russia and China are supplying military and intelligence expertise to Iran and this has served to increase Iran's early warning system and has allowed them to vastly modernize their air defenses.
On Iran's home front, an attack would serve to destroy any dissent against it's corrupt government. Not only would it galvanize the population, but it would give the regime the necessary tools to crush and eliminate any dissension without fear of world condemnation. WOW, I got carried away with my writing and tried to squeeze to much in, so I won't even go into the possibility of Armageddon and the assault by evil to destroy Israel once and for all. I will close by saying that because of delays, Israel is know stuck between a rock and a hard place and no solution would be good enough.

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My 8 year old daughter Kaitlyn's self portrait.

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